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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2020 10:12 pm 
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Sons of Thunder
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Reported US coronavirus cases:

Feb. 26: 59 cases
Mar. 26: 82,100 cases
Apr. 26: 965,435 cases
May 26: 1,725,275 cases

Reported US coronavirus deaths on date:

Feb. 26: 0 deaths
Mar. 26: 1,195 deaths
Apr. 26: 54,856 deaths
May 26: 100,572 deaths

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2020 11:20 pm 
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If you could give us the number of tests for each of those dates it would provide context.

Also, of note:

I've followed this over time and the percentage of seriously infected patients has dropped from about 6% to 2%. I assume that means the number of infected who require hospitalization. The percentage of cases resulting in death has dropped from 21% to 13%. By "cases", I think the meaning is hospitalized patients. So, the seriousness of the Wuhan infections that require hospitalization has dropped by about half and the number of those who die has dropped about 38%.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2020 5:47 am 
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Quote:
Antibody tests suggest the IFR in New York is something like 0.6 percent


Uhh, no they don't: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2020 8:51 am 
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But, maybe it is:

Quote:
The number of actual cases is therefore estimated to be at several multiples above the number of reported cases.


Quote:
Worldometer has analyzed the data provided by New York City, the New York State antibody study, and the excess deaths analysis by the CDC. Combining these 3 sources together we can derive the most accurate estimate to date on the mortality rate for COVID-19....


The methodology is replete with estimates and guesstimates and assumptions. For example, we know that the death rate in NYC from Wuhan is lower than reported, due to various political reporting decisions, whereas the methodology assumes that the death rate is higher. And the sampling methodology for antibody testing is not representative. There are other examples.

The data and methodology consist of SWAGS.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2020 11:32 am 
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Highlander wrote:
The methodology is replete with estimates and guesstimates and assumptions. For example, we know that the death rate in NYC from Wuhan is lower than reported, due to various political reporting decisions, whereas the methodology assumes that the death rate is higher. And the sampling methodology for antibody testing is not representative. There are other examples.

Actually NY's sampling methodology for antibodies was as representative as it can get, unlike that peddled by Ioannidis and crew in California. And even if you remove the excess deaths reported by the CDC and look only at the confirmed Covid deaths, you still get an IFR of ~1.1%

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2020 12:53 pm 
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Peregrinator wrote:
Highlander wrote:
The methodology is replete with estimates and guesstimates and assumptions. For example, we know that the death rate in NYC from Wuhan is lower than reported, due to various political reporting decisions, whereas the methodology assumes that the death rate is higher. And the sampling methodology for antibody testing is not representative. There are other examples.

Actually NY's sampling methodology for antibodies was as representative as it can get, unlike that peddled by Ioannidis and crew in California. And even if you remove the excess deaths reported by the CDC and look only at the confirmed Covid deaths, you still get an IFR of ~1.1%


Quote:
New York State conducted an antibody testing study [source], showing that 12.3% of the population in the state had COVID-19 antibodies as of May 1, 2020. The survey developed a baseline infection rate by testing 15,103 people at grocery stores and community centers across the state over the preceding two weeks.


...testing 15,103 people at grocery stores and community centers across the state...

Is this a representative sample? It is a sample of the people who were available at grocery stores and community centers, but included no cases of people who chose not to be at a grocery store or community centers. One can speculate that those who chose not to visit a community center or who had groceries delivered may or may not have impacted the sample in a statistically significant way.

...showing that 12.3% of the population...

Nonsense. It showed nothing. It estimated based upon certain assumptions and a specific sampling technique. But the author leapt from an estimate to a fact; not surprising in light of modern education.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2020 5:04 pm 
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Yeah I think it is probably a representative sample. It's certainly a lot more representative than asking for volunteers or telling people to come for an antibody test to put their minds at ease.

The more I think about the CDC's new "best estimate" of the infection fatality rate, the more I think it's bad. If the IFR is 0.26%, as the CDC claims, with 101,833 deaths that means ~ 39 million people infected (and given that deaths aren't immediate, it means something more like 39 million people infected 2-4 weeks ago). That's about 12% of the U.S. population. The true number of infected is probably more like 3-6% of the population.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2020 8:47 pm 
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US coronavirus deaths:

90 days ago: 0 deaths
80 days ago: 21 deaths
70 days ago: 149 deaths
60 days ago: 2,043 deaths
50 days ago: 12,895 deaths
40 days ago: 37,054 deaths
30 days ago: 56,255 deaths
20 days ago: 75,662 deaths
10 days ago: 89,562 deaths

Today: 102,107 deaths

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2020 11:50 pm 
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Peregrinator wrote:
Yeah I think it is probably a representative sample. It's certainly a lot more representative than asking for volunteers or telling people to come for an antibody test to put their minds at ease.

The more I think about the CDC's new "best estimate" of the infection fatality rate, the more I think it's bad. If the IFR is 0.26%, as the CDC claims, with 101,833 deaths that means ~ 39 million people infected (and given that deaths aren't immediate, it means something more like 39 million people infected 2-4 weeks ago). That's about 12% of the U.S. population. The true number of infected is probably more like 3-6% of the population.
And down the rabbit hole. Of what we think and what we deduce and what we infer about what they estimate and what they speculate and what they guess. But the math is fun.

The sample may or may not be representative. The point is that we don't know My thought, deduction, and inference is that, since folks in community centers and grocery stores are more willing to go out and expose themselves, their population may show a higher infection rate than the general population. Which would be in line with your statement.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 5:47 am 
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Highlander wrote:
My thought, deduction, and inference is that, since folks in community centers and grocery stores are more willing to go out and expose themselves, their population may show a higher infection rate than the general population.

Maybe. My thought is more that, of the essential businesses that are open, grocery stores are the most essential and therefore the most likely to be patronized by a representative sample of the community, or at least as representative as one can get without going directly to homes and testing people under court order. In any case, if the general population's infection rate is lower than that determined by the NY antibody testing program, the fatality rate is then higher. For example, if NY's infection rate is 6.3% instead of 12.6%, then the fatality rate would be ~2.2% instead of ~1.1%. But IIRC there were other data I had seen that made the 1.1% seem reasonable. The CDC's number seems very low, and as my wife pointed out yesterday, if the fatality rate is so low, then why does the CDC have such a ridiculous list of guidelines for reopening schools?

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 8:56 am 
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One SWAG is as good as another; I can live with yours.

As to guidelines, bureaucrats live on the notion that they know better than the governed. Sometimes they do; sometimes they just tell each other that they do. In the case of the current unpleasantness, I hold that we have a lot of bureaucrats seizing police power to make the governed do what they think the governed should do.

My personal observation, combined with reports from friends, is that, in my locale, social distancing and mask wearing is strictly observed by only about 25% of the population ... unless they have to observe in order to shop. Even then, they don't always and some merchants need the business so badly that they don't challenge the unmasked. I note that only about 10% of the walkers in my local park are masked and that they routinely pass within 6 feet of each other. Irish democracy in practice.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 9:33 am 
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Same here in the socialist republic of Portland Oregon.

This crisis taught me that 7-11 (free banana with any size coffee) is an essential business. Who Knew.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 9:37 am 
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Highlander wrote:
One SWAG is as good as another; I can live with yours.

As to guidelines, bureaucrats live on the notion that they know better than the governed. Sometimes they do; sometimes they just tell each other that they do. In the case of the current unpleasantness, I hold that we have a lot of bureaucrats seizing police power to make the governed do what they think the governed should do.

My personal observation, combined with reports from friends, is that, in my locale, social distancing and mask wearing is strictly observed by only about 25% of the population ... unless they have to observe in order to shop. Even then, they don't always and some merchants need the business so badly that they don't challenge the unmasked. I note that only about 10% of the walkers in my local park are masked and that they routinely pass within 6 feet of each other. Irish democracy in practice.



Totalitarian absolutists showing their colors.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 12:05 pm 
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GKC wrote:
Highlander wrote:
One SWAG is as good as another; I can live with yours.

As to guidelines, bureaucrats live on the notion that they know better than the governed. Sometimes they do; sometimes they just tell each other that they do. In the case of the current unpleasantness, I hold that we have a lot of bureaucrats seizing police power to make the governed do what they think the governed should do.

My personal observation, combined with reports from friends, is that, in my locale, social distancing and mask wearing is strictly observed by only about 25% of the population ... unless they have to observe in order to shop. Even then, they don't always and some merchants need the business so badly that they don't challenge the unmasked. I note that only about 10% of the walkers in my local park are masked and that they routinely pass within 6 feet of each other. Irish democracy in practice.



Totalitarian absolutists showing their colors.


They have never hidden their colors, I think. Most ignored them and thought them to be something from eccentrics and loonies who ran universities and appeared on public TV... as long as they left us alone, it was live and let live. But now they can sic the cops on us if we deviate from the latest edict from an unelected and unaccountable apparatchik. Looney becomes a self-criticism meeting run by the Party ... and you'd better own up to your Thoughcrimes and hidden biases and structural racism.
Orwell got it right:

Power is not a means, it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship.

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Last edited by Highlander on Thu May 28, 2020 12:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 12:33 pm 
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Quote:
CDC's Latest 'Best Estimate' of COVID Death Rate Is 13 Times Lower Than Initial WHO Claim
Lets match that quote with another:

Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 12:39 pm 
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Highlander wrote:
GKC wrote:
Highlander wrote:
One SWAG is as good as another; I can live with yours.

As to guidelines, bureaucrats live on the notion that they know better than the governed. Sometimes they do; sometimes they just tell each other that they do. In the case of the current unpleasantness, I hold that we have a lot of bureaucrats seizing police power to make the governed do what they think the governed should do.

My personal observation, combined with reports from friends, is that, in my locale, social distancing and mask wearing is strictly observed by only about 25% of the population ... unless they have to observe in order to shop. Even then, they don't always and some merchants need the business so badly that they don't challenge the unmasked. I note that only about 10% of the walkers in my local park are masked and that they routinely pass within 6 feet of each other. Irish democracy in practice.



Totalitarian absolutists showing their colors.


They have never hidden their colors, I think. Most ignored them and thought them to be something from eccentrics and loonies who ran universities and appeared on public TV... as long as they left us alone, it was live and let live. But now they can sic the cops on us if we deviate from . Looney becomes a self-criticism meeting run by the Party ... and you'd better own up to your Thoughcrimes and hidden biases and structural racism.
Orwell got it right:

Power is not a means, it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship.


:yes:

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Sat May 30, 2020 1:26 am 
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Prestigious medical journal urges outpatient use of hydroxychloroquine regimen for COVID-19



ttps://justthenews.com/politics-policy/ ... ithromycin

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:48 am 
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Experts at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security are reporting increasing evidence that the novel coronavirus is far less deadly than it first appeared to be. The new information follows expansive antibody testing that reveals individuals whose blood contains the antibodies to fight the virus, but not the virus itself. These antibody tests have found significantly large numbers of Americans who had been infected but were largely asymptomatic, meaning they never fell seriously ill. That means risk of death from the virus is far less than originally feared.

Initially, the death rate from COVID-19 was estimated at a staggering 5% or higher. The new findings drop that rate significantly.

"The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%," says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:26 pm 
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Considering all of the protests/riots that have been happening lately (none of which have involved social distancing), I’m very much looking forward to June 15 - 20. One of two things is going to happen:

1. The number of new COVID-19 cases will go straight through the roof.

OR

2. All of this social distancing shtuff will be proven to be no longer necessary.

:popcorn

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:51 pm 
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Mrs. Timmy wrote:
Considering all of the protests/riots that have been happening lately (none of which have involved social distancing), I’m very much looking forward to June 15 - 20. One of two things is going to happen:

1. The number of new COVID-19 cases will go straight through the roof.

OR

2. All of this social distancing shtuff will be proven to be no longer necessary.

:popcorn

But, almost certainly, rioters who come down with Wuhan will righteously identify Trump as the cause of their illness.

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Benedicamus Domino!
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