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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:27 pm 
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Peetem wrote:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/the-unequal-cost-of-social-distancing

"Social distancing will save lives.(i) Its economic costs are staggering. While frustrating but manageable for many people(ii), the economic fallout of social distancing is brutal for the poorest, most vulnerable and marginalized members of our society. Even looking at the issue purely in terms of lives lost, injuries sustained, and lifelong psychological damage, there are tradeoffs that we feel have not been sufficiently acknowledged.

Unemployment will lead to increases in suicide, substance abuse, domestic violence, homelessness and food insecurity. Substance abuse itself—especially the opioid crisis—has already significantly reduced life expectancy in the U.S., and that has been during a time of relative prosperity. Under the current circumstances, it is entirely possible we will see such an impact again. Domestic violence is also deadly, more so now with abusers finding themselves frustrated and at home far more than normal."

Folks are probably smarter too than Stefanie DeLuca, James Coleman Professor of Sociology & Social Policy, Nick Papageorge, Broadus Mitchell Associate Professor of Economics and Emma Kalish, PhD student in Economics who authored this article.


Peteem, I'm well aware of the costs of the social distancing measures. Here is what I wrote a week ago in a much-too-long post in this thread:
Denise Dee wrote:

At some point within a few months, life is going to have to get back to normal, for economic reasons. Poverty kills, and economic collapse would sooner or later cause more deaths than the Coronavirus. It's a difficult balance to get right, but people are going to have to go back to work within months or weeks, and normal social and economic activity will have to be encouraged to return, almost certainly before the virus has stopped spreading.

Every politician who is pleading with people to stay at home now, to save lives, is well aware of the costs. But right now, if people believe that "we have taken a 'scorched earth' approach that is totally unnecessary" and consequently don't stay at home and adhere to social distancing, lives will be lost that could have been saved, the ICU's will be overwhelmed, there will not be enough ventilators and doctors and nurses for all the covid-19 patients who could potentially be enabled to recover. That's the reality which no one should be in denial about by now.

Stefanie DeLuca, James Coleman Professor of Sociology & Social Policy, Nick Papageorge, Broadus Mitchell Associate Professor of Economics and Emma Kalish, PhD student in Economics, who authored that article, are not in denial about that reality. You don't appear to have read all of the article, you don't appear to have seen where they said this:

"Given the uneven burden, a concern is that long-term quarantine or social distancing measures are unsustainable, in part because the costs borne by disadvantaged segments of the population are too brutal. However, it is also clear that the consequences of business-as-usual are intolerable. Thus, two untenable views emerge. President Trump argues for a potentially disastrous premature curtailment of social distancing. Many public health experts take a more nuanced view that advocates for some longer period of social distancing."

So yes, the authors of that article are smart, but the person who thinks they are arguing against the CURRENT social distancing measures is not so smart.

The more that people adhere to social distancing measures now, the sooner the measures can end.


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:10 am 
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A retired bishop from Philadelphia is believed to be the first American Catholic bishop to die of COVID-19.
Metropolitan Archbishop Emeritus Stephen Sulyk of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Archeparchy of Philadelphia died Monday. He was 95 and had been living in a clergy retirement home in Cherry Hill, N.J.

Late Sunday, Metropolitan Archbishop Borys Gudziak of Philadelphia sent a message to the priests of the Archeparchy, saying, “A few hours ago Archbishop Stephen was hospitalized. He is presenting the symptoms of COVID-19, and his vital signs are weak. The Archbishop is receiving comfort care. Everything is in the Lord’s hands.”

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:42 am 
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The coronavirus is complete and utter balderdash!

The real reason they're spreading "coronavirus fears" is to tank the economy, and to spread pure and utter chaos by lowering the world's population, and they're eventually going to do this with vaccinations...maybe even perhaps mandatory vaccinations. And they made up this phony virus. I mean, how do we know people are dying of this virus anyways? Thousands die of the normal flu every year anyways, so what's the big deal about this?

So why tank the economy? To make Trump lose because the economy one of his triumphs. They want to blame the virus on him, and spread mass hysteria just to see how far they can take this whole...control the world thing.

They want to control the world's population because the churches aren't open and if the churches aren't open, then people can't get married, and if people can't get married they can't have children. Now you can have a child without marriage, which is fornication, and grossly wrong and immoral, but not everyone fornicates.

And if people are out of a job, they don't have all of the finances to support a child. And if people are afraid of germs such as spreading the "coronavirus", then they won't be having relations. It may work against them, however, in many cases, but the overall intent is still there.

First, let's start with vaccines. Do you know what they put in those things they give to children. Aluminum, mercury, and formaldehyde (what you put in corpses) to a name a few. At least that's what they put in the vaccinations now. My guess is they'll do it to these as well.

And with vaccinations comes autism, allergies, paralyzation, and sometimes even death. 2 of these have been have been spotted in my nieces, and my nephew is autistic from vaccinations as well. And when one is autistic you won't have any more kids because an autistic kid is very difficult to deal with, and many will get sterilized very much like a dog (Sterilization is a mortal sin, but that doesn't stop many Catholics from getting it).

It's easy. They're pushing vaccinations because the more vaccinations, the less children.

Two Words.

Population.

Control.

And the coronavirus is just one of many tactics the world's Elite has up their sleeves,and a great way to do this spread mass chaos and fear by concocting a phony virus that the whole world has come to believe.

Don't believe any of it!


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:01 am 
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CoconutBlanket wrote:
The coronavirus is complete and utter balderdash!

The real reason they're spreading "coronavirus fears" is to tank the economy, and to spread pure and utter chaos by lowering the world's population, and they're eventually going to do this with vaccinations...maybe even perhaps mandatory vaccinations. And they made up this phony virus. I mean, how do we know people are dying of this virus anyways? Thousands die of the normal flu every year anyways, so what's the big deal about this?

So why tank the economy? To make Trump lose because the economy one of his triumphs. They want to blame the virus on him, and spread mass hysteria just to see how far they can take this whole...control the world thing.

They want to control the world's population because the churches aren't open and if the churches aren't open, then people can't get married, and if people can't get married they can't have children. Now you can have a child without marriage, which is fornication, and grossly wrong and immoral, but not everyone fornicates.

And if people are out of a job, they don't have all of the finances to support a child. And if people are afraid of germs such as spreading the "coronavirus", then they won't be having relations. It may work against them, however, in many cases, but the overall intent is still there.

First, let's start with vaccines. Do you know what they put in those things they give to children. Aluminum, mercury, and formaldehyde (what you put in corpses) to a name a few. At least that's what they put in the vaccinations now. My guess is they'll do it to these as well.

And with vaccinations comes autism, allergies, paralyzation, and sometimes even death. 2 of these have been have been spotted in my nieces, and my nephew is autistic from vaccinations as well. And when one is autistic you won't have any more kids because an autistic kid is very difficult to deal with, and many will get sterilized very much like a dog (Sterilization is a mortal sin, but that doesn't stop many Catholics from getting it).

It's easy. They're pushing vaccinations because the more vaccinations, the less children.

Two Words.

Population.

Control.

And the coronavirus is just one of many tactics the world's Elite has up their sleeves,and a great way to do this spread mass chaos and fear by concocting a phony virus that the whole world has come to believe.

Don't believe any of it!


Oh, not to worry. I most certainly don't believe any of it. Or anything else I find/have found posted by you.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:55 pm 
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https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/491715-key-coronavirus-model-revised-downward-predicts-60k-deaths-in-us-by-august

"A key forecasting model used by the White House has revised its prediction of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S., now estimating a peak of 60,415 by early August."

# of projected deaths as a % of our population (329,000,000) - .0182%

As a comparison of traffic deaths (For more information, see the NHTSA Traffic Safety Facts, 2019).

- Over 37,000 people die in road accidents each year
- 2.35 million are injured or disabled by their accidents
- 2 million drivers experience a permanent injury every year.

We should probably ban driving.

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Last edited by Peetem on Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:57 pm 
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CoconutBlanket wrote:
The coronavirus is complete and utter balderdash!

The real reason they're spreading "coronavirus fears" is to tank the economy, and to spread pure and utter chaos by lowering the world's population, and they're eventually going to do this with vaccinations...maybe even perhaps mandatory vaccinations. And they made up this phony virus. I mean, how do we know people are dying of this virus anyways? Thousands die of the normal flu every year anyways, so what's the big deal about this?



Interesting.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:00 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:03 pm 
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FYI - There are nearly 7,000 deaths per day in the US.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:09 pm 
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And the graph is a typical propaganda device.

60,000 deaths is the prediction of the number of deaths by the models. But let’s say those continue over a year and all deaths from Covid-19 add up to 80,000.

That equates to around 220 per day.

Hardly a “blip” on a graph with a max Y-Axis of 2,000 and a X-Axis of 365. No matter how large you zoom it.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:38 am 
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CoconutBlanket, I'm not even going to quote your nonsense, but tell me why would ALL the doctors and medical experts want to "tank the economy"?

Why would Donald Trump want to "tank the economy"?

Wise up.


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:42 am 
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Peetem wrote:
And the graph is a typical propaganda device.

60,000 deaths is the prediction of the number of deaths by the models. But let’s say those continue over a year and all deaths from Covid-19 add up to 80,000.

That equates to around 220 per day.

Hardly a “blip” on a graph with a max Y-Axis of 2,000 and a X-Axis of 365. No matter how large you zoom it.

But once again, the reality that you are ignoring, Peteem, is that RIGHT NOW it is essential to minimise the spread of Coronavirus, otherwise the hospitals will not be able to cope.


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:46 am 
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CoconutBlanket wrote:
The coronavirus is complete and utter balderdash!

The real reason they're spreading "coronavirus fears" is to tank the economy, and to spread pure and utter chaos by lowering the world's population, and they're eventually going to do this with vaccinations...maybe even perhaps mandatory vaccinations. And they made up this phony virus. I mean, how do we know people are dying of this virus anyways? Thousands die of the normal flu every year anyways, so what's the big deal about this?

So why tank the economy? To make Trump lose because the economy one of his triumphs. They want to blame the virus on him, and spread mass hysteria just to see how far they can take this whole...control the world thing.

They want to control the world's population because the churches aren't open and if the churches aren't open, then people can't get married, and if people can't get married they can't have children. Now you can have a child without marriage, which is fornication, and grossly wrong and immoral, but not everyone fornicates.

And if people are out of a job, they don't have all of the finances to support a child. And if people are afraid of germs such as spreading the "coronavirus", then they won't be having relations. It may work against them, however, in many cases, but the overall intent is still there.

First, let's start with vaccines. Do you know what they put in those things they give to children. Aluminum, mercury, and formaldehyde (what you put in corpses) to a name a few. At least that's what they put in the vaccinations now. My guess is they'll do it to these as well.

And with vaccinations comes autism, allergies, paralyzation, and sometimes even death. 2 of these have been have been spotted in my nieces, and my nephew is autistic from vaccinations as well. And when one is autistic you won't have any more kids because an autistic kid is very difficult to deal with, and many will get sterilized very much like a dog (Sterilization is a mortal sin, but that doesn't stop many Catholics from getting it).

It's easy. They're pushing vaccinations because the more vaccinations, the less children.

Two Words.

Population.

Control.

And the coronavirus is just one of many tactics the world's Elite has up their sleeves,and a great way to do this spread mass chaos and fear by concocting a phony virus that the whole world has come to believe.

Don't believe any of it!

What exactly is fake about the virus?

It has been reported as being extremely transmissible, by the scientists, anyway, much more than the reporters. At least until the last week or two I would say it has consistently been downplayed by the media and government and almost any and all official spokesmouths of anything.

The death rate has always been said to be small, but significant. That hasn't changed. Even if you go with a very low rate, assuming most people who contract the virus are never identified, and use a multiplier like 10 or 12 or 15, you can still do the math easily enough and see that with no action to stop the spread at least a million would die in the U.S.

When you say it's fake, I have no idea what you mean.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:25 am 
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Peetem wrote:
60,000 deaths is the prediction of the number of deaths by the models. But let’s say those continue over a year and all deaths from Covid-19 add up to 80,000.

Yes, that is because with mitigation the deaths will peak and then drop. They'll probably drop without mitigation as well, but only after many more are killed

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:19 am 
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Bombadil wrote:
CoconutBlanket wrote:
The coronavirus is complete and utter balderdash!

The real reason they're spreading "coronavirus fears" is to tank the economy, and to spread pure and utter chaos by lowering the world's population, and they're eventually going to do this with vaccinations...maybe even perhaps mandatory vaccinations. And they made up this phony virus. I mean, how do we know people are dying of this virus anyways? Thousands die of the normal flu every year anyways, so what's the big deal about this?

So why tank the economy? To make Trump lose because the economy one of his triumphs. They want to blame the virus on him, and spread mass hysteria just to see how far they can take this whole...control the world thing.

They want to control the world's population because the churches aren't open and if the churches aren't open, then people can't get married, and if people can't get married they can't have children. Now you can have a child without marriage, which is fornication, and grossly wrong and immoral, but not everyone fornicates.

And if people are out of a job, they don't have all of the finances to support a child. And if people are afraid of germs such as spreading the "coronavirus", then they won't be having relations. It may work against them, however, in many cases, but the overall intent is still there.

First, let's start with vaccines. Do you know what they put in those things they give to children. Aluminum, mercury, and formaldehyde (what you put in corpses) to a name a few. At least that's what they put in the vaccinations now. My guess is they'll do it to these as well.

And with vaccinations comes autism, allergies, paralyzation, and sometimes even death. 2 of these have been have been spotted in my nieces, and my nephew is autistic from vaccinations as well. And when one is autistic you won't have any more kids because an autistic kid is very difficult to deal with, and many will get sterilized very much like a dog (Sterilization is a mortal sin, but that doesn't stop many Catholics from getting it).

It's easy. They're pushing vaccinations because the more vaccinations, the less children.

Two Words.

Population.

Control.

And the coronavirus is just one of many tactics the world's Elite has up their sleeves,and a great way to do this spread mass chaos and fear by concocting a phony virus that the whole world has come to believe.

Don't believe any of it!

What exactly is fake about the virus?

It has been reported as being extremely transmissible, by the scientists, anyway, much more than the reporters. At least until the last week or two I would say it has consistently been downplayed by the media and government and almost any and all official spokesmouths of anything.

The death rate has always been said to be small, but significant. That hasn't changed. Even if you go with a very low rate, assuming most people who contract the virus are never identified, and use a multiplier like 10 or 12 or 15, you can still do the math easily enough and see that with no action to stop the spread at least a million would die in the U.S.

When you say it's fake, I have no idea what you mean.

I suppose I will continue this with some more facts.

Some Woohan deniers claim the death rate is actually .1%. That the official estimates of the number of asymptomatic infections is dramatically understated, or that the official reported numbers of infections is greatly understated. There is without a doubt some discrepancy, but is it that high? No.

We already have several regions where the number of deaths from the Wuhan have reached .1% of the entire population. San Marino and the Lombardy region of Italy are two examples. Unless you believe every single person in those areas have been infected, .1% is way too low. If you do think that every single person there has been infected despite being on lockdown for 6 weeks, yore bonkers.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:48 am 
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Peregrinator wrote:
Peetem wrote:
60,000 deaths is the prediction of the number of deaths by the models. But let’s say those continue over a year and all deaths from Covid-19 add up to 80,000.

Yes, that is because with mitigation the deaths will peak and then drop. They'll probably drop without mitigation as well, but only after many more are killed


I agree.

Without mitigation the number of dead from the virus would roughly equal the number of dead and severely disabled due to car accidents. However we would develop herd immunity and no further deaths would likely occur (not significant) from the virus. Yet we aren't going to ban driving and those deaths and disabled will continue to occur.

So do we ban driving?

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:24 am 
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https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Study-investigates-if-COVID-19-came-to-Calif-in-15187085.php

"MONTEREY, Calif. — Researchers at Stanford Medicine are working to find out what proportion of Californians have already had COVID-19. The new study could help policymakers make more informed decisions during the coronavirus pandemic.

The team tested 3,200 people at three Bay Area locations on Saturday using an antibody test for COVID-19 and expect to release results in the coming weeks. The data could help to prove COVID-19 arrived undetected in California much earlier than previously thought.

The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state's lower than expected case numbers."

Emphasis mine....

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:38 pm 
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the hypothesis that it doesn't affect Californians the way it does everyone else is stoopid.

Emphasis mine.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:47 pm 
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Peetem wrote:
And the graph is a typical propaganda device.

60,000 deaths is the prediction of the number of deaths by the models. But let’s say those continue over a year and all deaths from Covid-19 add up to 80,000.

That equates to around 220 per day.

Hardly a “blip” on a graph with a max Y-Axis of 2,000 and a X-Axis of 365. No matter how large you zoom it.


Peteem, I can pinpoint the mistake you are making. This is your mistake:

Peetem wrote:
But let’s say those continue over a year and all deaths from Covid-19 add up to 80,000.

That equates to around 220 per day.


And you've made the same mistake here:

Peetem wrote:
Without mitigation the number of dead from the virus would roughly equal the number of dead and severely disabled due to car accidents.


Peteem, you are averaging out the number of Coronavirus deaths over the space of a year, but that's not the reality. That's the problem. If only the numbers could be evenly spaced out over a year, there would be no crisis. But that's not the reality. This is the reality:

In the USA:
On 22 March there were 430 Coronavirus deaths.
On 26 March there were 1,295 Coronavirus deaths.
On 30 March there were 3,156 Coronavirus deaths.
On 3 April there were 7,404 Coronavirus deaths.
On 8 April there were 14,788 Coronavirus deaths.

So, as you can see, the number of deaths has more than doubled every 4 or 5 days in the last few weeks.

If the number of Coronavirus deaths continues to double every 5 days, then

by 13 April there will be 28,000 Coronavirus deaths,
by 18 April there will be 56,000 Coronavirus deaths,
by 23 April there will be 112,000 Coronavirus deaths.

Hopefully the numbers will have peaked and begun to decline by the end of this month, but nobody know for sure, and a decline is much less likely if nothing is done to slow the spread of the virus.

So when you say "let’s say those continue over a year and all deaths from Covid-19 add up to 80,000" – it’s NOT 80,000 over a year, it could be 80,000 within a few weeks. Whatever it will be in the next few weeks, it could very likely be more than the hospitals can cope with, especially if too little is done to slow the spread of the virus. That’s the mistake you are making.

The hospitals could cope if the number of patients needing Intensive Care doctors, nurses and equipment was spaced out over a year, but not that many in the space of a few weeks.

So for the sake of those patients, and those doctors and nurses, we need to stay at home as much as possible and adhere to social distancing measures to minimise the spread of the Coronavirus, so that hospitals will be able to cope and lives will be saved.

The number of Coronavirus deaths in the USA is NOT "around 220 per day". Yesterday it was almost 2,000 in one day, and increasing exponentially, and the hopitals are in very real imminent danger of being overwhelmed by the numbers.

Hopefully, with the necessary social distancing measures, the number of Coronavirus deaths will not continue to double every 5 days, and the peak and subsequent decline will come sooner rather than later, but without these measures, which you have said are "totally unnecessary", what would you do to reduce the numbers to a level the hospitals can cope with? Would you just hope and pray that the virus will disappear, like a miracle! Would you just let the hospitals be overwhelmed?


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:31 pm 
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More questions for coconut blanket.

I actually think these are important as there are still so many Woohan deniers out there.

I have relatives who have gotten covid one is dead and one is in the hospital. Are you saying they faked his death? I have numerous friends, relatives, and people I know who work in medicine. Many of them are working covid patients. They didn't have these kind of patients a month ago. Are you saying that all these ultraconservatives are working with George Soros to fake a global pandemic hoax? :laughhard

What do you think about the holocaust? Was it also fake? My grandfather helped liberate one of the death camps, was he also a liar perpetrating a hoax? Maybe WW2 was fake. How do we really know it even happened?

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:39 pm 
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Bombadil wrote:
the hypothesis that it doesn't affect Californians the way it does everyone else is stoopid.

Emphasis mine.


Dude, seriously??

By all accounts it appears the west coast in general and CA in particular was exposed to this virus long before it became a national crisis (they have between 5,000 to 7,000 Chinese visitors per day and for months). Because of such, nobody notice a dramatic uptick in deaths, hospitals weren’t overwhelmed and nearly everybody got through it without much fanfare. There were no news reports of a big uptick in seasonal flu victims either (which can be confused for this virus).

The point is, the folks in CA already went through exposure and came out on the other side with immunity and little else.

Nobody, I mean nobody is saying folks in CA experience this differently.

_________________
"So mercifully blessed to be free from the ravages of intelligence." - Taken from Time Bandits


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