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 Post subject: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:05 am 
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It looks legit. Sources and all. For those interested.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:00 pm 
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It looks like China is doing something right. They have really bunkered down and have minimized the number of people dying.

Meanwhile, Europe and the Americas is rising.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:35 pm 
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Dominic wrote:
It looks like China is doing something right. They have really bunkered down and have minimized the number of people dying.

Yes, they are definitely doing something right according to their official statistics which may or may not be credible.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:05 pm 
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New cases falling in Australia as a result of:

a. banning overseas visitors
b. returning Australians in compulsory quarantine in hotels for 2 weeks (enforced by police and military - they are transferred from the airport or cruise terminal)
c. social distancing compulsory (maximum of 2 besides your household in most of Australia)
d. banning people travelling between Australian states
e. work from home where possible
f. closing sporting centres, children's playgrounds etc.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:57 pm 
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I think these measures (home quarantine, shutting down the economy) are overdoing it.

Playgrounds here have been closed down. I regularly see people on facebook pleading with humanity to "just stay inside your house away from other people!".


Something about this strikes me as giving up alot of freedom for the safety of a few.
Now, by that rationale - if you ban cars in just America alone you can save 30K+ automobile deaths.
Every flu season.... by just declaring a state of emergency you can save some lives by that too. Probably 10K+.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:32 pm 
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Dominic wrote:
It looks legit. Sources and all. For those interested.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

It definitely is legit.


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:46 pm 
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And yet North Korea still has zero cases....the great leader will simply not allow the virus in his country!!

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:58 pm 
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Peregrinator wrote:
Dominic wrote:
It looks like China is doing something right. They have really bunkered down and have minimized the number of people dying.

Yes, they are definitely doing something right according to their official statistics which may or may not be credible.


Well, if you're going to go there.......go full hog....as they say.

China basically has always had a solution (dare I say cure) to this thing.

This is biochemical warfare.... :shock: .....tied to economics and being the superpower. The Chinese are excellent at copying and they've been observing for some time.

It's all tied to owning the 5G platform (which China leads in) and controlling the modes that operate them. Machines talking to machines.

5G can do that in a way 4G can't.

A good way to test it......is spooking the world into wanting immediate control of the masses via automation. You can't go anywhere without the government knowing where you are and how sick you are. Who wouldn't beg for that when people are dying?

In the famous words of Gracchus from the movie Gladiator......"He will bring them death, and they will love him for it."

We will love the Chinese if they can protect us better than our own government.

....Foil hat taken off now...... :-D

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:59 pm 
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Arky wrote:
And yet North Korea still has zero cases....the great leader will simply not allow the virus in his country!!


COVID-19 hates communism. Unless it's inside, it loves it then.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:17 pm 
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p.falk wrote:
I think these measures (home quarantine, shutting down the economy) are overdoing it.

Playgrounds here have been closed down. I regularly see people on facebook pleading with humanity to "just stay inside your house away from other people!".


Something about this strikes me as giving up alot of freedom for the safety of a few.
Now, by that rationale - if you ban cars in just America alone you can save 30K+ automobile deaths.
Every flu season.... by just declaring a state of emergency you can save some lives by that too. Probably 10K+.

In the long run, you may be right, but in the short term it would appear to be callous to just allow the number of cases and deaths to increase exponentially until the hospital Intensive Care Units are overwhelmed and patients whose lives could be saved, with Intensive Care treatment, die because there are no more ICU beds or ventilators.

The exponential increase in deaths, which is currently occurring at a rate of approximately more than doubling each week in many countries - e.g. in France, Germany, UK, Holland, USA - is bound to reach a peak within weeks, with or without lockdowns.

Obviously nobody wants thousands of otherwise preventable deaths and overwhelmed hospitals and patients dying for want of ventilators (although Sweden appears to be willing to take that risk, with fewer restrictions and a much more relaxed approach than other countries - and it will be many months before it will become clear whether that's a better or worse strategy).

But even if no measures were taken to try to reduce the spread of the virus, or if the measures taken don't work, the number of Coronavirus deaths could not continue to double each week for very long, because - from the point when the total number of deaths reaches 1,000 in any country - if the number then approximately doubles each week, then after 10 weeks there would be approximately 500,000 deaths per week, and a total of 500,000 deaths during the previous nine weeks, which is a total of a million by week 10 and 8 million by week 13.

And if the death rate is, say, 2 per cent of cases, that would mean that by week 10 about 49 million people in the country have been infected in addition to the 1 million dead. So in countries the size of Italy, UK, Germany, there could be no further increase at that point.

By week 12, in a country the size of the United States, if 4 million were dead, that would mean another 196 million would have the virus, and could not increase exponentially in the 13th week.

So it wouldn't be mathematically possible for the number of deaths to double in the 11th week in countries the size of Italy, Spain, Germany, UK, (with the almost certain assumption that once people get the virus and recover, they are immune for at least about a year) or in the 13th week in the USA. So it's mathematically bound to decline within 11 weeks maximum in European countries, and within 13 weeks in the USA, and almost certainly much sooner!

If the death rate was as high as 5 per cent, a million deaths by week ten in the UK would mean an additional 19 million will have the virus, and a doubling the following week would mean the number of deaths could not double any more.

If the death rate was 1 per cent, half a million deaths by week nine would mean a total of 50 million will have had the virus by week nine, and there could be no more doubling, in countries such as Italy, Spain, France, and the UK.

It would be a mathematical maximum of about 13 weeks in the United States.

And obviously with the herd immunity theory, the death rate would start to decline much sooner.

So the fear is not that the number of deaths will continue to increase in a country until a huge number, such as about three four million, in the country are dead! That's not going to happen, it's virtually mathematically impossible. The fear is that the number of deaths will increase to the point where the hospitals are overwhelmed, which in the UK seems to be around the point when a few thousand Coronavirus deaths per week are occurring, more or less, depending on the capacity of ICUs in each country. The UK is coping at the moment with over 1,300 Coronavirus-related deaths in the last week, while trying to increase hospital capacity in the coming weeks.

Epidemics in the past seem to reach a peak, or two peaks, and then decline at much the same rate as they increased. So at some point the spread of the Coronavirus will reach a peak, or two, and decline. All the previous epidemics have declined at much the same rate as they have increased - a bell-shaped or inverted V-shaped curve - so it's highly unlikely that the spread would plateau and continue at a steady high rate of deaths each week.

So if after a few weeks of lockdown, the number of deaths decline, as hoped and reasonably expected, that would not be proof that lockdown was the cause of the decline, it would be a correlation, not cause and effect. The decline is going to occur within weeks anyway. It could well coincide with around about the point when lockdown had been in operation for a few weeks.

In theory lockdown should work, but the obvious flaw is that the virus will spread in hospitals, and in the community by medical staff, and Domiciliary Care Assistants who have to visit ill and elderly people in their homes two or three times a day.

Several thousand Coronavirus-related deaths each week is very worrying for health services to cope with, and worrying for elderly people with serious underlying health conditions, but, as shown by the Italian Health Ministry's data, reported by the BBC a week ago, which revealed that "the average age of someone who died was 80", and that "99 per cent of them had pre-existing conditions", and "almost half had three or more pre-existing conditions" - it's not personally worrying for the rest of us.

To put it into perspective, from the UK's Office of National Statistics website:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeop ... 522019.xls


in the month of March 2019 (i.e. the four weeks from 2 March to 29 March) in England and Wales,

41,734 people died,

of which 6,016 people died from "respiratory diseases" - in March alone.

Compare that figure with the number of Coronavirus-related deaths in the last four weeks in the UK,

which is less than 2,000.

Obviously the fear for the NHS and other countries' health services is that the number is increasing exponentially and could be as high as Italy very soon, which is approximately the same size of population as England and Wales, and currently has recorded:

more than 12,000 deaths, in Italy.

But even 12,000 Coronavirus deaths in one month is less than a third of the total number of deaths in a month in England and Wales.

If about 40,000 people inevitably die in a fairly typical month, they have to die of something. So if 12,000 people die of the Coronavirus in one month, it is alarming, but not nearly as alarming as it sounds.

There is no indication anywhere as to how many of these Coronavirus deaths are excess deaths. Obviously many of the people in their 80s with underlying health conditions may have died of something else this year anyway, such as flu. It won't be known until sometime next year how many more deaths than normally expected there will have been this year due to the Coronavirus, but it wouldn't surprise me if the overall total death rate in many countries, such as the UK, USA, Germany, etc, turns out to be actually less than normally expected in a year, rather than more. About 600,000 people die in the UK each year, which puts the Coronavirus deaths into perspective.

If the Coronavirus caused people to die suddenly and quietly in their sleep, with no warning, in the exact same numbers, there would not be this crisis nor all the fear about it, because the deaths would not be reported on a daily basis, in the same way as deaths from heart disease, strokes, cancer, pneumonia, etc, are not reported on a daily basis, and there would be no health crisis nor economic crisis. But because hospital treatment can save some Coronavirus patients from dying, there is a very real fear that the hospitals will be overwhelmed, and therefore a crisis, and because the virus is an infection which people can catch, there is a very exaggerated fear among many of the general public that it is going to kill them out of the blue, and this fear is greatly increased by the way the deaths are reported in the media. Many people are also quite rightly concerned about their elderly relatives and eldrerly friends with underlying health conditions.

If ICUs are near to capacity for most of the year, it only requires a relatively slight increase in the need for ICU beds for there to be a crisis. But many people don't understand that that's what the crisis is all about, and there is a huge amount of fear that there is a huge new risk that this deadly new virus is going to suddenly strike them and kill them out of the blue.

Maybe the fear is necessary to make more people comply with the measures to slow down the spread, but it's not the reality, and the fear is also causing a lot of harm to people. We can socially isolate and follow the necessary government advice without being fearful that the virus is going to somehow kill us. It's reasonable for people to be very concerned about elderly people with serious pre-existing conditions, but the rest of us are much more likely to die from something else!

At some point within a few months, life is going to have to get back to normal, for economic reasons. Poverty kills, and economic collapse would sooner or later cause more deaths than the Coronavirus. It's a difficult balance to get right, but people are going to have to go back to work within months or weeks, and normal social and economic activity will have to be encouraged to return, almost certainly before the virus has stopped spreading. Yet people have been made very fearful of getting the virus, so somehow all the unnecessary fear is going to have to be undone! The concept of herd immunity will have to be discussed again!

The very real fear that the Coronavirus will spread exponentially and consequently hospitals will be overwhelmed is a worst case scenario, at some point the spread of the Coronavirus will peak and decline, and the number of Coronavirus-related deaths will peak and decline, but nobody can be sure at what point it will peak, so that's why the experts are worried, but there is no significant increased risk to individuals, yet many fairly healthy people are terrified of getting the virus. I have no fear of getting it and it would be great if getting it made you immune to getting it again, but obviously at this point in time it's very important not to get it in case you spread it


Last edited by Denise Dee on Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:24 pm 
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@Denise

What does peak even mean?

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:33 pm 
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Dominic wrote:
@Denise

What does peak even mean?

The peak is simple the point when the rate of increase (in cases or deaths) reaches its highest point and starts to decline.

So if, for example, the numbers were:
Sunday: 1
Monday: 4
Tuesday: 3
Wednesday: 4
Thursday: 9
Friday: 6
Saturday: 1

the peak would be 9, on Thursday.


Last edited by Denise Dee on Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:38 pm 
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Denise Dee wrote:
Dominic wrote:
@Denise

What does peak even mean?

The peak is simple the point when the rate of increase (in cases or deaths) reaches its highest point and starts to decline.


I feel silly. I was overthinking this.

I just imagined a scenario where COVID-19 could theoretically be going down and could spike back up with a vengeance (say a year from now) once everyone came out of their caves again. I mean, not enough people have been infected to really say it's peaked, even when it does go down.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:41 pm 
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Dominic wrote:
Denise Dee wrote:
Dominic wrote:
@Denise

What does peak even mean?

The peak is simple the point when the rate of increase (in cases or deaths) reaches its highest point and starts to decline.


I feel silly. I was overthinking this.

I just imagined a scenario where COVID-19 could theoretically be going down and could spike back up with a vengeance (say a year from now) once everyone came out of their caves again. I mean, not enough people have been infected to really say it's peaked, even when it does go down.

That's very possible and a big fear of the experts. There can be two peaks, or three peaks, or more. The theory is that after about 60% to 80% of the population have had the virus, there is herd immunity which means the virus can't spread very much because most people are immune.


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:55 pm 
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Dominic wrote:
Denise Dee wrote:
Dominic wrote:
@Denise

What does peak even mean?

The peak is simple the point when the rate of increase (in cases or deaths) reaches its highest point and starts to decline.


I feel silly. I was overthinking this.

I just imagined a scenario where COVID-19 could theoretically be going down and could spike back up with a vengeance (say a year from now) once everyone came out of their caves again. I mean, not enough people have been infected to really say it's peaked, even when it does go down.

If it spiked back up in a year from now, that might not be so huge a problem, the big fear is that it might spike back up with a vengeance shortly after the lockdown restrictions are lifted - which for economic and social and psychological reasons they will have to be sooner or later - in a few weeks or months.


Last edited by Denise Dee on Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:56 pm 
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Denise Dee wrote:
Dominic wrote:
Denise Dee wrote:
Dominic wrote:
@Denise

What does peak even mean?

The peak is simple the point when the rate of increase (in cases or deaths) reaches its highest point and starts to decline.


I feel silly. I was overthinking this.

I just imagined a scenario where COVID-19 could theoretically be going down and could spike back up with a vengeance (say a year from now) once everyone came out of their caves again. I mean, not enough people have been infected to really say it's peaked, even when it does go down.

That's very possible and a big fear of the experts. There can be two peaks, or three peaks, or more. The theory is that after about 60% to 80% of the population have had the virus, there is herd immunity which means the virus can't spread very much because most people are immune.

So peak isn't really peak? That's sorta where I was going with this.

This reminded me of the walking dead. The herd.

Wasn't there a country that was expediting this process by having people just be careful and take usual precautions, but continue business as usual? Can't remember who.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:59 pm 
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Dominic wrote:
Denise Dee wrote:
Dominic wrote:
Denise Dee wrote:
Dominic wrote:
@Denise

What does peak even mean?

The peak is simple the point when the rate of increase (in cases or deaths) reaches its highest point and starts to decline.


I feel silly. I was overthinking this.

I just imagined a scenario where COVID-19 could theoretically be going down and could spike back up with a vengeance (say a year from now) once everyone came out of their caves again. I mean, not enough people have been infected to really say it's peaked, even when it does go down.


Wasn't there a country that was expediting this process by having people just be careful and take usual precautions, but continue business as usual? Can't remember who.

Sweden is currently doing that. Time will tell if that's wise and courageous or reckless.


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:27 pm 
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We have different views of the cost of freedom.

Threats of marshal law and forced quarantines cost more than what's predicted... for me

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:28 pm 
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Question though:

This COVID-19... is it a mutant version of a coronavirus that we have experienced in past years?

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Meter
PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:54 pm 
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p.falk wrote:
Question though:

This COVID-19... is it a mutant version of a coronavirus that we have experienced in past years?


I don't know if mutant is the right term, but yes. All evidence done on the previous SARS indicates that in all likelihood the new virus only evolved over time naturally.

The extremely efficient way it latches on to human cells is so impressive that it is unlikely it was done by any technology known to man.

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